'Tis budget season again in Harrisburg. Governor Tom Wolf and the state legislature face a June 30th deadline for enacting the 2016-17 spending plan. If it seems like we just finished the budget; that is because it took until April for the longest fiscal stand-off in state history to be resolved. And now, it is time to begin anew.
Hopefully, not the lengthy stand-off part.
June is typically when the heavy lifting on crafting the new budget is done, particularly the last week of the month when legislators act like college students pulling an overnighter to get their assignments finished. In this case though, there is no penalty for tardiness.
The big question under the capitol dome is will there be a summer re-run of the 2015-16 budget drama, or will the state budget actually get done relatively close to the constitutional deadline? So far, the signals are mixed — but ominous.
Will it be, as Yogi Berra once said, "déjà vu all over again?" Two factors point to another epic battle. First, Governor Wolf's "budget address" last winter lacked any content actually pertaining to the budget. Instead, he unleashed a tongue lashing at the legislature for failing to approve his historic tax and spending increases. This was as well received as an illegal alien at a Trump rally. Second, not a single legislator lost in April's primary as a result of the budget battle.
That second factor is significant. With all House members and half of the Senate up for re-election this year pressure is normally on to avoid anything even remotely controversial so as not to upset the electorate. However, Republicans in particular are emboldened because they stood their ground, bested Governor Wolf in round one, and were rewarded by voters. This gives them no incentive to cave to the governor's tax hike demands. Quite the opposite, voters in their districts clearly don't want expanded state spending and the taxes needed to pay for it.
Conversely, Democrats — who have become essentially an urban party in Pennsylvania — represent districts that benefit from state taxpayer largesse. Their constituents want more spending because they are on the receiving end, thus those voters returned their representatives to office as well.
Stuck in the middle are the endangered species of suburban Democrats who represent so-called "swing districts." Largely located in western Pennsylvania, these districts have been flipping from Democrat to Republican in recent cycles. This is where the biggest electoral battles of 2016 will be fought, and those Democrats are on the hot seat.
This brings us to the one factor that could bring about a prompt budget resolution: Democratic desires not to lose even more of their seats. Already Republicans hold legislative majorities not seen on over a half century. The electoral map does not offer Democrats much hope. At least three Senate Democrats are imperiled while the GOP faces no significant opposition to holding their seats. In the House, most battles will again be fought on the little remaining Democrat turf in the western part of the state.
In each of those districts the trend line has been favorable for Republicans, and the Democrat constituencies are far more conservative than those found in urban areas. Thus, Democratic candidates in each of those districts can ill afford to be tagged with supporting Governor Wolf's tax and spend agenda. This is incentive for Democratic leadership to postpone until next year any epic battle over the budget.
Should that occur Pennsylvania taxpayers will have only a brief respite. Governor Wolf must stand for re-election in 2018 meaning his last shot at enacting his bold plans to expand the size and scope of state government will come next year. Lose, and his image as an isolated and ineffective chief executive will be cemented into place. But for Tom Wolf, even winning comes with some risk: will statewide voters actually reward a governor who just imposed upon them a historically large tax hike?
The only thing we can say for sure is it will be interesting to watch.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is firstname.lastname@example.org.)
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